Ran Prieur http://ranprieur.com/#9a417fe513f58988c3b5b1e84cfc57397194a79b 2025-09-22T22:40:02Z Ran Prieur http://ranprieur.com/ ranprieur@gmail.com September 22. http://ranprieur.com/#fe4a80b01404d217dd0c6e0ceb88d6d579f7de1d 2025-09-22T22:40:02Z September 22. Continuing from a week ago on the subject of AI. A wargame expert said, "It's almost like the AI understands escalation, but not de-escalation. We don't really know why that is."

The answer is that AI doesn't understand anything. It escalates because the data it's been trained on is full of escalation and not de-escalation. Matt comments, "If we wanted to show LLMs records of skillful de-escalation, what would we point them to? What's the best data set for that?" It's hard to think of anything.

A Hacker News comment thread, You did this with an AI and you do not understand what you're doing here. The context is an erroneous AI-generated bug report, and the larger context is AI slop feeding back into itself. An ironic comment: "You should just feed other peoples AI-generated responses into your own AI tools and let the tool answer for you! The loop is then closed, no human time wasted, and the only effect is wasted energy to run the AI tools. It's the perfect business model to turn energy into money."

This is my new understanding of AI, and it's old enough that a book was written on it last year: AI is a mirror. It's a very powerful mirror, and very expensive. We can learn a lot from mirrors and make good use of them. But ultimately all AI does is reflect humanity back at humanity. This perspective can answer a lot of questions. Can AI replace all jobs? Can a mirror replace all jobs? Can AI gain sentience? Can a mirror gain sentience?

Related, a classic article from The Onion, Astronomers Discover Planet Identical To Earth With Orbital Space Mirror

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September 19. http://ranprieur.com/#6470971b7c68b6764d3f698b335548c11dde95c3 2025-09-19T19:10:03Z September 19. I've posted my Covers playlist to Spotify. When I was working on it, Leigh Ann said, "You make playlists differently from other people. Other people use good songs, and you use bad songs." Yes, but I'm very picky. After heavy playtesting, I ended up cutting almost an hour of songs that weren't bad enough, and whittled it down to 40 songs. Five of them are not on Spotify, including two that I mentioned last week, Lily Allen's Straight to Hell and the listenable remix of Wall of Voodoo's Ring of Fire. Also missing are Killdozer's offensive cover of Sweet Home Alabama, and an amazing Russian throat singing version of Come Together, Bugotak's Kon' Togethy. I used the Bugotak album image for the playlist image.

Three artists are on the list as both songwriters and performers: Nick Cave and AC/DC happened naturally, and I had to try really hard to find a cover of an REM song that I liked. In the end I found the entire Out Of Time album done by Quivers, an Australian jangle pop band, and picked their dreamy cover of Radio Song to open the list.

I did the whole thing with the sound dead on my nine year old laptop, doing all the listening on my even older Sansa Clip mp3 player. After I plug the songs into Spotify, it's fun to go through and see how many listens everything has. Most popular, at 37 million, is Lissie's ominous version of Go Your Own Way. Most obscure is an accordion cover of She Blinded Me With Science, and second most obscure, at 2500 listens, is the absolute banger I picked as closer, Exuma's reinvention of You Can't Always Get What You Want.

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September 17. http://ranprieur.com/#3ba9f268dc0489b2965e6016fed214abcbebcf66 2025-09-17T17:50:04Z September 17. A few links from PsyPost. Medicinal cannabis may actually worsen sleep. This is why I get high in the afternoon and not the evening. Cannabis makes sleep more pleasant, but the next day I always need a big nap.

Religious leaders become more effective after two supported psilocybin sessions:

Follow-up assessments revealed that these improvements were largely sustained 16 months later. At that time, a majority of participants rated at least one of their psilocybin sessions as among the top five most spiritually significant (96%), profoundly sacred (92%), psychologically insightful (83%), and psychologically meaningful (79%) experiences of their lives.

Of the many crazy devices on Anycrap, my favorite is Thought-cancelling Headphones, which are almost realistic. In ten years we might actually have something you can put on your head that stills your thoughts. Leaning in that direction: Deep brain stimulation reshapes emotional networks in treatment-resistant depression.

Finally, Massive study of Reddit posts sheds light on lived experiences of autism:

"One surprising result was how frequently topics like food selectivity and music listening emerged as central themes," Esposito told PsyPost. "These everyday experiences are rarely prioritized in clinical research, yet they clearly play an important role in autistic people's lives."

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September 15. http://ranprieur.com/#4cb63a39b66af40b623f658e91555f5ea48f3ae4 2025-09-15T15:30:09Z September 15. Doom links, starting with this Guardian article on 'a darker chapter' for US violence, which makes the same point I made last week:

"People don't start their journey as a violent extremist expert on a given ideology," Braniff said. "There are underlying risk factors in their lives.... Ideology is often a lagging indicator for someone who's gravitating towards violence."

Also from the Guardian, How can England possibly be running out of water?

A NY Times snapshot, An Annual Blast of Pacific Cold Water Did Not Occur, Alarming Scientists

Orange rivers signal toxic shift in Arctic wilderness

'Explosive increase' of ticks that cause meat allergy in US due to climate crisis

And saving the scariest for last, The AI Doomsday Machine Is Closer to Reality Than You Think:

Last year Schneider, director of the Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation Initiative at Stanford University, began experimenting with war games that gave the latest generation of artificial intelligence the role of strategic decision-makers. In the games, five off-the-shelf LLMs -- OpenAI's GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and GPT-4-Base; Anthropic's Claude 2; and Meta's Llama-2 Chat -- were confronted with fictional crisis situations that resembled Russia's invasion of Ukraine or China's threat to Taiwan.

The results? Almost all of the AI models showed a preference to escalate aggressively, use firepower indiscriminately and turn crises into shooting wars -- even to the point of launching nuclear weapons.... "It's almost like the AI understands escalation, but not de-escalation. We don't really know why that is."

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September 13. http://ranprieur.com/#0a314525777f3727c495f069057b4792048e946f 2025-09-13T13:10:51Z September 13. Something fun for the weekend, and probably the best use of AI so far: Anycrap, The Store of Infinite Products, in which you can type any product you can imagine and it will try to generate it.

And some music. I'm working on a covers playlist, and at first I was only going to do songs I know about, like Wall of Voodoo's Ring of Fire. But I decided to do heavy research, so I've been looking through Reddit threads, Spotify playlists, and Soulseek folders, reading thousands of titles and listening to hundreds of lame songs for at least the first minute. It's like gambling because you never know when you might find a good one.

The best covers sound unlike the original, and Lily Allen's bubblegum cover of the Clash's Straight To Hell is a revelation. Warren Zevon's sad cover of Back in the High Life Again is a perfect funeral song. Those both have over a million YouTube views. A nice obscurity, with 700 views, is Graham Colton's atmospheric cover of Rod Stewart's Young Turks.

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September 11-12. http://ranprieur.com/#f2614bce55c589204b38187e2fd9644ad1c4ef79 2025-09-11T23:50:34Z September 11-12. Last year when Trump was almost killed, his last words were "Take a look at what happened." The last word Charlie Kirk said was "violence". It's obvious, as the Washington Post says, that America is entering a new age of political violence. That article says "it is occurring on both the right and the left." Is that true? According to the Wikipedia page on Luigi Mangione:

Time magazine said it could not discern whether his political views were left- or right-wing. The Spectator wrote that his worldview "wasn't pinned to a standard left-right axis". Jacobin stated he held "a hodgepodge of views and political beliefs that don't neatly map onto any one category on the political spectrum."

Kirk's assassin, Tyler Robinson, did not vote in the last two elections, and only recently became obsessed with anti-fascism. My point is, the left-right spectrum is not adequate to understand what's happening to America. Actions can be tagged as right or left depending on which tribe gets mad about them, but the source of the most spectacular actions, the energy that motivates them, is deeper than politics.

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September 8. http://ranprieur.com/#575ea8b93eea6c4bb9838fd738bdb16ba9180fe0 2025-09-08T20:20:33Z September 8. Two different tangents from Friday's post on jhanas. First, a comment from a specialist:

I find it really difficult to believe someone was able to attain cessation in 20 hours of practice and very little meditation experience. That's like saying you one-shotted Dark Souls without ever playing a video game before..... Getting cessation in 1-3 years meditating an hour or so a day, with a good guide book, maybe with a couple retreats and a bit of advice from a teacher, is perfectly doable. Except the weird thing is, it's far more likely on accident or blind luck. That's because when you don't know what to expect you're just exploring for fun.

There must be a wide range of talents at getting to "wow" mental states, in the same way that there's a wide range in other mental skills. So the people who get their minds blown after 20 hours are going to write about it and get readers, not so much the people who get subtle benefits after hundreds of hours. Maybe I'm not resistant to jhanas, just average, and Asparouhova is super talented and assumes that everyone else is too. This happens with a lot of things, especially in the shallow age of social media: The public discourse is dominated by the lucky and talented (or by liars) and everyone else thinks there's something wrong with them.


Second tangent. I keep thinking about Asparouhova's metaphor that the jhanas are like a video game:

I might play through the game again if I'm feeling nostalgic, or to uncover new ways of "beating" it, or find any hidden quests or parts of the map I might've missed along the way. But that would just be for fun. I know that all those paths will lead to the same ending, and I already know what the ending is. My intrinsic desire to finish the game has been satisfied.

This oddly reminds me of the "rat utopia" experiment, in which rats were given a basic living space of fixed size, and unlimited food. The population swelled, they developed very strange behaviors, and in the end they died out in an unbelievable way: Every last rat lost interest in procreating. This is hard to explain without the concept of a collective consciousness, or a superorganism. And once you open that door, you have to wonder about humans.

Not that we're going to die out, but that the flashiest accomplishments of modernity are not the platforms for our transcendent destiny, but just crazy stuff we wanted to try one time, and now we're like, "Computers, been there, done that." I expect the next age to be slower paced and more grounded, but we'll also be doing cool stuff we haven't done yet.

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September 5. http://ranprieur.com/#dd94c5a890b7c75b0f75698e7c8e7cd9af44225a 2025-09-05T17:50:29Z September 5. For the weekend, altered states of consciousness, specifically the jhanas, which predate Buddhism. Via Hacker News, a post by Henrik Karlsson, Almost anything you give sustained attention to will begin to loop on itself and bloom. I thought it was going to be about negative thought loops, or AI-enhanced insanity. But it's about positive thought loops:

If you learn to pay sustained attention to your happiness, the pleasant sensation will loop on itself until it explodes and pulls you into a series of almost hallucinogenic states, ending in cessation, where your consciousness lets go and you disappear for a while. This takes practice. The practice is called jhanas, and it is sometimes described as the inverse of a panic attack.

He links to this detailed page by Nadia Asparouhova, How to do the jhanas, and there's good stuff in the Hacker News thread, including a sub-thread about attention in different languages, and a fascinating summary of the book The Disappearance of Rituals by Byung-Chul Han: "I think it's about structuring time and attention vertically on top of itself instead of horizontally across moments and subjects."

Karlsson tells the story of going to the symphony with his eyes closed, and in thirty minutes, his imagination popped out "what felt like two or three feature films." Yeah, that's what they call hyperphantasia. I'm not aphantasic, but my imagination rarely volunteers anything. It usually only contains what I do the work of putting there, and I'm wondering how common that is.

I also wonder if I'm "ajhanic", because supposedly the real point of the jhanas is not the bliss, but that that in going through the process, you learn to better manage your moment-to-moment mental health, and I've done that. I can pull out of bad thought loops, absorb boredom like a sponge, and I'm making progress on clumsiness. In many hours of practice and lots of experimentation, I've already done most of the exercises on those two pages, and I have not yet had a "wow" mental state without drugs.

On that subject, from a thread on the Stoner Thoughts subreddit:

We too once swore as kids we'd make it through the madness sober, but the truth is this modern age feels like it was designed to break that vow. The pressure, the noise, the endless scroll of insanity -- no wonder so many of us need a buffer just to breathe. But I've also learned: even when you lean on smoke or drink, you're not failing -- you're surviving. You're carrying the flame through an impossible age.


fenced urban lot with graffiti, 'these days of plenty are numbered']]>
September 3. http://ranprieur.com/#b35e8c1bae3e52ee83d91ba645bab3e05cefbba9 2025-09-03T15:30:02Z September 3. There's a line in Revenge of the Nerds, "Would you rather live in the ascendancy of a civilization or during its decline?" I heard that in 1984 and immediately thought "decline". It just seems more interesting, and here we are. It's stranger than I could have imagined, which is cool, but the worst thing is how tight it is. Every supermarket is down to one entrance with a security guard. Every fiddly task requires a fucking password. Rules are always being added, never removed, and it's exhausting. If a solar flare fried all the tech tomorrow, I would probably starve, but it would be such a relief.

Another bit from the book Wilding:

In 2000 the Oxford Junior Dictionary, aimed at seven-year-olds, dropped 'almonds', 'blackberry' and 'crocus' in favour of 'analogue', 'block graph' and 'celebrity'. The 2012 edition continued writing nature out of young minds, replacing 'acorn', 'buttercup' and 'conker' with 'attachment', 'blog' and 'chat room'. Instead of 'catkin', 'cauliflower', 'chestnut' and 'clover' they now have 'cut and paste', 'broadband' and 'analogue'. Heron, herring, kingfisher, lark, leopard, lobster, magpie, minnow, mussel, newt, otter, ox, oyster and panther have all been deleted.

This is a Tower of Babel moment. We are losing the ability to understand the real world, and each other, as our attention is consumed by kaleidoscopic navel-staring. I don't know how it's going to shake out, but I'm confident that the two most common predictions of the future are wrong: There will be no space colonies, and there will be no human extinction. We're going to keep muddling around on the earth for a very long time, and at some point, they'll think the internet was a myth, and they'll look at our remaining ruins and wonder about the mysterious people who made them.

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