Ran Prieur

January 20.

2025-01-20T20:00:56Z

January 20. The most important thing to remember about Donald Trump is that he's chaotic neutral. He plays the role of a lawful evil politician, and will do some lawful evil things, but his real mission in this world is to destroy institutions and inspire individuals to say fuck it.

I think he's actually going to tell the military to invade Greenland. One of two things will happen. They'll refuse, thus driving a wedge between the military and the presidency. Or they'll do it, driving a wedge into NATO. That's what Trump is, a driver of wedges, an arch-divider, an agent of the ongoing atomization of humanity. That's not necessarily bad. There's a general feeling that a lot of things need to be broken down right now.

The "deep state" is a propaganda term for a clunky bureaucracy that Trump wants to replace with old-fashioned corruption, defined as public officials using the office for personal gain. Not that that doesn't happen now, but it will surely get worse under a movement with so many grifters and easy marks. The rule of law will be replaced by "I know a guy". A more neutral way to say it is that the formal is being replaced by the informal, which sounds like a good idea, but remember the words of Bob Dylan, "To live outside the law you must be honest."

I posted this a few months back, a detailed argument that Trump is the Antichrist. I find it more helpful to think of him as the anti-Lincoln. Lincoln greatly strengthened the federal government relative to the states, and Trump is reversing that. Lincoln turned the Republicans from a third party to the dominant party, and Trump will reverse that. His charisma is the only thing holding together a coalition of billionaires and the working class, of authoritarians and people who crave chaos. Meanwhile the Democrats are a coalition of foreign policy hawks and cultural leftists, of plodding business as usual and forlorn hope for change, held together by fear of something that has now actually happened. Things fall apart, the center cannot hold. Make some popcorn and assume crash position. The enemy is within!

January 16.

2025-01-16T16:20:47Z

January 16. Stray links, starting with Inconvenient truths about the L.A. fires. They're not wildfires that swallowed the city. They're classic urban fires caused by extreme hot winds combined with buildings and landscaping that are not fire-resistant.

Why has it been so hard to arrest South Korea's impeached president? Because his private security officers are loyal to him and not to the constitution. This is something I learned from David Graeber's book The Dawn of Everything: that ancient "kings" were not like modern heads of state. They were warlords who only had power within a few hundred yards of wherever they actually were. As modern political systems break down, we're going to move back in that direction.

A thread in Ask Old People, Have you had family or friends who chose not to "fight" cancer?

Great stuff in this 1979 Al Pacino interview. My favorite bit:

When you're acting for a camera, it keeps taking and never giving back. When you perform with a live audience, the audience comes back to you, so that you and the audience are giving to each other, in a sense. It's an extraordinary thing. It's wild turf up there. The time I was doing Pavlo Hummel in Boston, I made connection with a pair of eyes in the audience and I thought, This is incredible, these eyes are penetrating me. I went through the whole performance just relating to those eyes, giving the whole thing to those eyes. I couldn't wait at curtain to see who it was. When curtain call finally came, I looked in the direction of those eyes and it was a seeing eye dog. Belonged to a blind girl. I couldn't get over it - the compassion and intensity and the understanding in those eyes... and it was a dog. What a profession!

Finally, Big Blood have a really interesting new album, Electric Voyeur. It's all played on handmade electronics that they've been building and practicing on for ten years. At the same time, it still sounds like Big Blood, with a clear evolutionary thread from recent albums, and from two older songs, "But I Studied" and "Sidewalk-Walk/Un-Nole". There's also an instrumental version, which almost sounds like a different album. My favorite track, from the main album, is Who Lives. This is my giant Big Blood page.

January 13.

2025-01-13T13:50:08Z

January 13. Long article in the Atlantic, The Anti-Social Century. It's about how we've been getting more isolated and how it's bad for our mental health. Smart phones and Covid have made it worse, but the trend started more than 50 years ago with TV and cars.

Related, another thread removed from Ask Reddit, containing many good answers to the question, Why do you think so many people are depressed?

And a quote from a book I'm rereading, and still my favorite book of social philosophy, Tools for Conviviality by Ivan Illich:

The re-establishment of an ecological balance depends on the ability of society to counteract the progressive materialization of values. Otherwise man will find himself totally enclosed within his artificial creation, with no exit. Enveloped in a physical, social, and psychological milieu of his own making, he will be a prisoner in the shell of technology, unable to find again the ancient milieu to which he was adapted for hundreds of thousands of years. The ecological balance cannot be re-established unless we recognize again that only persons have ends and that only persons can work toward them. Machines only operate ruthlessly to reduce people to the role of impotent allies in their destructive progress.

January 8.

2025-01-08T20:00:35Z

January 8. I'm starting to like January. October is still the best month, but January is when everyone hibernates after the holidays, and if your job isn't too taxing, you can get into some personal obsessions. I've been playing lots of solo games of Spirit Island. Anyway, a few more happy links, starting with another about the new year, Kakizome, Japanese way of new-years resolution. Instead of setting exact goals, you set a theme. "New Year's resolution feels like a path set on a map, and the theme feels like a compass."

Seattle Piano Recycling gives unwanted pianos new life. Basically, when they're hired to take pianos to the dump, they store them, make minor repairs, and then sell them for the price of delivery.

China has confirmed that solar panels in the desert are good for desert ecology.

Living proof that you can spend money on the poor: Utopia comes to Mexico City. "Utopia" is an acronym for putting nice public facilities in the poorest neighborhoods. This could never happen in the USA because the second poorest people demand that the poorest people be worse off.

January 5.

2025-01-05T17:30:12Z

January 5. After three negative posts in a row, here are some positive links for the new year. Quiet Mind is a nice explanation of mindfulness/meditation. "This is not rocket science. It is our own mind! The abilities to walk upright and to use symbolic language were attained by proto-humans with effort over many generations. Learning to use the mind well will occur in the space between thoughts."

From The Whippet, The Animal Crossing / Stardew Valley model for NY goals. The idea is to gamify personal improvement, but do it in a low-stress way.

Related, a sub-thread in a Reddit thread about health tips, Anything worth doing is worth doing poorly

From the Psychonaut subreddit, Shrooms showed me my "pipes were clean"

The "pipe" in this analogy represents our capacity to let emotions flow. If your pipes are clogged - if you have unresolved issues, repressed feelings, or mental blockages - those emotions can come out muddy or overwhelming when shrooms turn on the tap. But if you've been doing inner work and clearing out old debris, the flow can be more crystalline and uplifting.

And two more Reddit threads. I don't know what's up with the Ask Reddit mods, that they consistently remove the most interesting threads. What's the most meaningful expression of love you've ever seen or experienced? And What's the one random genetic trait you lucked out on? This is the one I most envy:

Got the joie de vivre. Life fuckin rules, even when it doesn't. My dad has it, his parents had it, their parents had it, etc. Honestly feels like a superpower to find joy in things every day, especially in the world we live in now.

January 1, 2025. It's possible that the next few years will be good for me personally. But in the realm of public events, every happy prediction I can think of is completely off the wall. Might RFK Jr legalize shrooms? Might AIs, while still arguably nonsentient, declare themselves gods and push progressive policies? Might enough competent people fall into homelessness that there's a homeless renaissance? Might the white working class finally support redistribution of wealth? Might Trump give us a UBI, just to have his name on it?

None of those things will happen. In the ebb and flow of history, this has to be the part where things get worse so that later they can get better. It might be as mild as a few years of authoritarianism to show new generations why it's a bad idea. Or it might be as extreme as a small nuclear war, a giant solar flare, or a deadlier pandemic, to accelerate the collapse of the global system and set the stage for something less insane.

This is my advice for the apocalypse. Last month I did a bibliomancy reading in an English-German dictionary, and the word was the German word zubereiten under the English word brew. Zubereiten means prepare, and I thought about the difference between those two words. You can prepare for something, but you don't brew for something, you brew something. That's my advice.